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Here are three keys for Game 7 of the ALCS:
1. Mind game
Any Game 7 is a big game, so it's going to first come down to which pitcher can control his emotions best early. There are tons of nerves in a game like this, no question. Jon Lester always appears to be very composed, whereas Matt Garza is a very emotional guy. We'll have to see how they both handle it.
2. Defense wins championships
Another big thing is going to be the defense. The Red Sox have had just one error in the postseason, and none in this series. The Rays' defense has cost Tampa Bay a few runs -- in particular with Jason Bartlett and Evan Longoria in Game 6, and in previous games. It's going to be important to keep the defense tight and not give up any cheap runs.
3. How much is left in the 'pen?
There's got to be some concern about the Red Sox bullpen, if it's tight late in the game. On Saturday night, it was pretty obvious that the Jonathan Papelbon was running on fumes. Hideki Okajima had to go two innings, and Justin Masterson's been used a lot. How much more can Terry Francona -- or John Farrell -- draw out of them if it's a close finish in a ballgame?
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Here are three keys for Game 6 of the ALCS:
1. Right on target
Much has been made about Josh Beckett and his fastball needing to hit 96-97 miles per hour, but that doesn't mean he can't win if he's topping out at 92-93 mph. He just has to hit his spots. A lot of guys win with 92 mph fastballs, so he could certainly do it, but he's got to locate his pitches. Location's been his problem the last couple of starts when he pitches over the plate. That's something to look for early in the game. Just watch where Jason Varitek sets up, and if Beckett's hitting his spots, he has a chance to be successful.
2. Get out early…
Offensively, it's going to be a tall task against James Shields. If Boston can get out and get a lead instead of playing from behind, that obviously puts more pressure on Tampa. The Rays haven't had to play from behind in this series very often -- and not at all in the last three games. After losing a game like Tampa Bay did the other night, if the Red Sox can get a quick lead, that puts pressure on the Rays immediately.
3. …And in their heads
The other thing is the bullpen of Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler. They were terrible the other night, just brutal, so they have to have some doubts in their minds. That certainly gives the Red Sox an advantage in a close game because Boston's been there and done that against these guys. If it's a tight situation, you've got to believe that those pitchers will be thinking about what happened in the last game. They can say what they want, but that kind of a loss is tough to put away. If you're the opposing team, what happened in Game 5 is going to be in the back of your head. If it's a tight game at the end, I think the Red Sox have an advantage.
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Here are three keys to Game 5 of the ALCS.
1. Good won't be good enough
The obvious thought is you've got to pitch well. The last couple of games the Red Sox have been out of it early. Daisuke Matsuzaka's got to keep Boston in the ballgame and give the team a chance to do something offensively. It's got to be almost a lights out start because these guys from Tampa Bay are killing the ball and somebody's got to give the Red Sox offense a chance to do something. Other than that what is there to say?
2. Kaz and effect
Another key to success is going to be how the hitters fare against Scott Kazmir. Boston has had great success against him so hopefully this move by Rays manager Joe Maddon -- to keep Kazmir on the hill, despite the struggles the left-hander's had when facing Boston -- can give the Red Sox offense life.
3. It all comes back to pitching
Hopefully, the Red Sox can make the Rays play from behind instead of Boston being the ones at a disadvantage. But that comes back to the most important key today, which again, is getting more than just a quality start from Matsuzaka.
Can the Red Sox come back? It could happen. They've done it before, so it definitely could happen, but it will be an uphill battle.
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1. Wake-up call
Tim Wakefield hasn’t pitched in a long time. A key for him is keeping the ball in the ballpark. When he pitches, you’re most likely going to have some passed balls, some wild pitches. You minimize the damage by keeping the ball in the park and keeping the mistakes at a minimum.
2. Trickle-down production
Aside from Dustin Pedroia, the Red Sox have not gotten any production out of the top of lineup. They have to get something out of J.D. Drew (Game 4's leadoff hitter, replacing the struggling Jacoby Ellsbury) and David Ortiz.
Getting some hits from their top three batters will help them get off to a good start. Last night, the crowd was out of the game in the fourth inning. It was one of the deadest playoff atmospheres that we’ve seen at Fenway in a long time. It should be the opposite.
3. Relief effort
Everyone in the Red Sox’ bullpen is rested. They didn’t use any of their main guys in the Game 3 blowout. With that said, if Wakefield doesn’t have his good stuff, they are at liberty to go to the bullpen very early, because all the relievers are fresh and ready to go.
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Here are three keys for Game 3 of the ALCS:
1. No more cowbell
A big thing for Boston will be getting back on familiar turf. There's a lot to be said for getting out of the dome and getting away from the cowbells. The comfort level that the Red Sox have at home will hopefully help. The team has a winning record against Tampa in Boston, where they've gone 7-2 against the Rays, so that should provide a boost as well.
2. Lester and the lefties
With Jon Lester going, that helps neutralize left-handed hitters a little bit, including Akinori Iwamura and Carl Crawford. Carlos Pena has a little bit of success against him, but having Lester on the mound does affect what we'll see in Tampa Bay's lineup. I'm sure they'll have Rocco Baldelli playing, who we haven't seen yet this series, so the starters will be a little bit different than what we've seen in the first two games because of Lester.
3. Shadows of doubt
If the sun's out, the shadows are going to play a major part in this game for both pitchers. With these four o'clock, four-thirty starts at this time of the year, the shadows -- if the sun's up -- will be a factor. When you have shadows, the most difficult pitches to see are off-speed pitches. While the pitchers wouldn't mind a little sunlight, the hitters are hoping it stays cloudy.
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Here are three keys to Game 2 of the ALCS:
1. Ace factor
Which Josh Beckett is going to show up? Last time out against the Angels, I think there was a little rust on him.
One of the keys to this game will be his fastball and his confidence in his pitch. Early in the game last time out, he didn't feel like had a good one.
More than injury, what I think has affected him is all the time he had off. He'll be working on regular rest against the Rays, so expect his performance to be better.
2. Run up Kazmir's pitch count
The whole idea against Scott Kazmir is for the Red Sox to work him as deep as they can. The team needs to build his pitch count up as high as they possibly can because he has a tendency to get himself in that position, and they need to stop him from getting on a roll.
If they get Kazmir in trouble early, they can knock him out early. He's one of those guys that gets stronger as the game goes on, but the fact is, a lot of his starts recently have been five innings with high pitch counts, kind of similar to Dice-K a little bit.
Make Kazmir throw strikes and get his pitch count as high as possible, and that could be enough to take him out of the equation.
3. Don't give up the big hit
Boston needs to keep doing what it did in Game 1, which is keeping Carlos Peña and Evan Longoria in the yard. They're the two guys that can do damage with the long ball and spread a game open.
Both were handled by Red Sox pitching in the opener. As I said before, Tampa Bay has a good offense, but not a great offense.
If the Red Sox can keep those two guys in check as far as home runs and power numbers go, they have a good chance of outscoring this team.
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Here are three keys to Game 1 of the ALCS:
1. Pedie and Papi power
Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz did not make much noise in the ALDS, going a combined 5-for-34. At some point, these two have to get hot for the offense to click on all cylinders.
Pedroia had only one hit against the Angels, but he could have had more with a little luck. As long as Pedroia keeps putting good swings on the ball, the hits should come.
The Red Sox would love to see the return of Ortiz as a big banger who can deliver that lights-out home run. It would add another weapon to their attack, and the Red Sox are going to need all the weapons they can muster against the Rays.
2. Left this way
Javier Lopez has to deliver when he gets the call from the bullpen. Since the Rays are heavy on left-handed hitters -- including Akinori Iwamura, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena -- expect Lopez to have a major impact.
Lopez is a specialist and will be used a lot, even more than Hideki Okajima, who is more of a one-inning guy against either left- or right-handers.
The Rays are not going to pinch hit for guys like Iwamura, Crawford and Pena, so Lopez has to shut them down when the opportunity arises.
3. Quiet the Trop
Tropicana Field is a hard place to play. It gets loud when it’s full, and it will be even louder than usual since this is the Rays’ first postseason.
Shutting up the crowd early will be an advantage for the Red Sox. There will be Sox fans down in Florida, but they will be outnumbered.
Everything seems to be going right for the Rays on their magical mystery tour. They are winning games in all kinds of different ways. The Red Sox have to do what they can to halt Tampa Bay’s momentum. Getting acclimated to the dome and taking the lead would help silence the fans and deflate the Rays.
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Here are three keys to Game 4 of the ALDS:
1. Déjà vu on the mound
Jon Lester and John Lackey square off against each other after starting the opener. It’s such a short period of time to already be having a rematch. Both pitched very, very well in Game 1, but the question now becomes: How will they change their game plans, if at all, against the opposing team?
When there’s such a quick turnaround, you’re pretty familiar with what happened in the last outing, so there’s got to be adjustments made with both pitchers going into this game.
That goes for the batters as well. How will the other players adjust to seeing the same pitchers again? The Angels said they were surprised a little bit by Lester. Will they have a better idea of what to expect?
2. Try to get Pedroia going
The oh-fer that Dustin Pedroia has got going in the series is not as bad as it looks. He’s not getting on base, but the fact is, he is swinging the bat pretty well. He’s squared up a lot of balls. He’s had a lot of line drive outs. He just missed a home run in Anaheim. He hit a rocket to third base in Game 3. And with a little bit of luck, Pedroia probably would have five hits in this series.
Obviously, with Jacoby Ellsbury being hot at the top of the lineup, it would certainly help the Red Sox offense if Pedroia could get hot again. What’s promising is that it’s not like he’s in a major slump, there’s just been a lot of tough breaks.
3. Bullpen situation for both teams
I’m sure everyone is available with the only question mark being Jonathan Papelbon, because of the two innings he pitched last night.
Even though a lot of the other guys didn’t work long outings for either club, with the exception of Scot Shields, it’s taxing stuff. It’s not the amount of the innings, but the situations they were in, the pressure. Those kind of outings take a lot out of pitchers and put a strain on the bullpen.
Which bullpen has enough gas left in the tank to get through this ballgame? With a possible off day on Tuesday, you’ll likely see guys coming back on less rest than you generally might expect.
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Here are three keys to Game 3 of the ALDS:
1. Give the ball to the ace
Of course, Josh Beckett is the story. The Red Sox say he’s healthy. He says he’s healthy. We shall see. Beckett is important for this game and the long run. He has proved he is one of the best big-game pitchers in history. As long as he can deliver, the Red Sox will be in good shape.
2. Keep the Angels’ offense down
The Angels have had their share of hits in this series. They've also score some runs, but they have not been able to come up with clutch hits or put together any kind of sustained rally. All their power hitters have hit just singles, and their lack of two-out base hits has hurt them. If this trend continues -- and the Red Sox keep multiple runs off the board -- it will be hard for the Angels to generate big innings.
3. Soak in the atmosphere at Fenway
Life doesn’t get much better in the playoffs than being up 2-0 and playing at home. We saw that in the Dodgers game on Saturday night. The Cubs looked like a dead team after getting down early. The Red Sox will attempt to do the same thing and take the thunder out of the Angels. All the pressure is on them. However, they are capable of winning three in a row. They did it many times during the season. So don't even give them a sniff at coming back. Finish them off.
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Three keys to Game 2 of the ALDS:
1. Draw first blood
The Red Sox want to jump out to a fast start and get the lead. If they can score early on Ervin Santana, it will put the Angels back on their heels -- in desperation mode. There is more pressure on the Angels because they don’t want to go to Boston with two losses. By scoring early, the Red Sox will force the Angels to play catch-up. This will take the crowd out of the game at Angel Stadium. With the high expectations for this team, the fans will be disappointed, and the Angels could start pressing.
2. Make the Angels chase pitches
Daisuke Matsuzaka should try to take advantage of the Angels’ impatience at the plate. We saw a little bit of that in Game 1 with Jon Lester getting Vladimir Guerrero to swing at a bad pitch in the first inning. It kept the Angels off the scoreboard and was a missed opportunity that had an impact on the final outcome of the game. Matsuzaka can do the same thing. He never gives in to hitters. If he can get ahead in counts, he can expand the strike zone, and these guys will chase.
3. Use every weapon
Much is made of the speed and aggressiveness of the Angels. The Red Sox are just as capable. I would say reverse the thinking. Have the Red Sox play as aggressive as the Angels. Boston is not a one-dimensional team that has to hit home runs to win games – these Red Sox are different than they’ve been in the past. They have the weapons to apply pressure. Jacoby Ellsbury has speed, and Dustin Pedroia can steal a base. They’re coming into this game with momentum and should use all their weapons, including the speed game. It all comes down to putting the Angels on the defensive.
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The Red Sox are set to open postseason play against the Angels in Anaheim. Here are three keys to Game 1 of the ALDS:
 1. Butterfly effect
Being Game 1 of the playoffs, nerves generally come into play. Which starting pitcher -- Jon Lester or John Lackey -- handles that better, especially early in the game, will go a long way toward determining who gets off to a good start.
2. Battered and bruised
What is the Red Sox lineup going to look like? Is J.D. Drew going to be part of it? Is Mike Lowell going to be part it? We don’t know what it’s going to look like. What is the health status of the Red Sox going into the opener offensively? Having Lowell and Drew on the field gives the Red Sox more options. If Lowell can't play, their defense won't be as strong with Kevin Youkilis at third.
3. Keep it close
The Red Sox cannot let the game get out of hand. Once the Angels get opponents on their heels a little bit, they have a way of keeping the pressure on -- they’ll do hit and runs, they’ll do squeeze plays, they’ll do all kind of things to disrupt the defense. Basically, it’s keeping the game under control in tough times. If you’re having a rough inning, don’t let the game get away from you by falling into their trap and allowing them to play the type of game that they do, which is squeezing and being very aggressive.
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